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July 09, 2026
The Markets Brief
ASX Pre-Market · 7:30am AEST
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Opening Note
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Market Bias
Risk-off; US-Iran escalation drives oil surge, equity retreat
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ASX Read
ASX set to fall; energy gains offset by broad risk-off selling
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Main Driver
US strikes on Iran push oil up 3.22%, equities lower
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The ASX opens under pressure Thursday after Wall Street retreated on renewed US-Iran hostilities, with the S&P 500 down 0.28% to 7,482.7 and the Dow shedding 1.09% to 52,348.4 — though the Nasdaq edged 0.20% higher to 25,870.7, cushioning the blow to tech-exposed names. Trump's declaration that the ceasefire is "over" and subsequent US strikes on Iran sent WTI crude surging 3.22% to $74.59, lifted the US 10-year yield 0.88% to 4.57%, and weighed on copper (-1.43% to $6.12) and gold (-1.10% to $4,088.10). The AUD held near flat at $0.6932. Energy names Santos (+5.78%), Woodside (+3.22%), and Origin (+1.77%) led the prior session higher and should retain support on the oil bid. The same geopolitical shock that lifts energy, however, weighs on risk sentiment broadly — miners BHP (-2.31%), Rio (-2.55%), and IGO (-3.61%) face continued pressure from falling copper and subdued iron ore demand signals from China. Telstra (-2.96%) carries its own drag after a major network outage exposed a second infrastructure fault.
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Market Tape
| S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 7,482.7; Dow -1.09% to 52,348.4 — broad risk-off read-through for ASX industrials and financials | | ASX 200 closed -0.21% at 8,785.1 Wednesday — energy gained, miners and telcos dragged | | WTI crude +3.22% to $74.59 on Iran escalation — directly supportive of Santos, Woodside, Origin at open | | US 10Y yield rose to 4.57% (+0.88%) while copper fell 1.43% to $6.12 — rate and growth headwinds diverge from oil strength |
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The Read
| Energy stocks enter Thursday with a clear geopolitical tailwind, but the broader ASX will struggle to advance while rising US yields and falling copper signal tightening financial conditions and slowing industrial demand. | | The Strait of Hormuz moving back into full-conflict conditions is the key transmission channel — oil stays elevated, but sustained risk-off pressure on copper and equities limits any net ASX gain. |
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Stocks In Play
| STO (Santos) — WTI crude +3.22% to $74.59 on Iran strikes; STO closed +5.78% at $7.50, further upside possible if oil extends after-hours gains | | WDS (Woodside) — direct oil price beneficiary; closed +3.22% at $28.87, tracks WTI move with further catalyst if Hormuz risk premium holds | | TLS (Telstra) — closed -2.96% at $4.92 after network outage revealed second infrastructure fault; reputational and regulatory risk remains live |
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Markets at a Glance
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Indices
| ASX 200 |
8,785.1 |
▼ -0.21% |
| S&P 500 |
7,482.7 |
▼ -0.28% |
| Dow Jones |
52,348.4 |
▼ -1.09% |
| Nasdaq |
25,870.7 |
▲ +0.20% |
FX
| AUD/USD |
0.6932 |
▲ +0.05% |
| AUD/GBP |
0.5170 |
▼ -0.25% |
| AUD/EUR |
0.6068 |
▼ -0.03% |
| AUD/JPY |
112.6460 |
▲ +0.28% |
Rates
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Commodities
| Gold |
$4,088.10 |
▼ -1.10% |
| WTI Oil |
$74.59 |
▲ +3.22% |
| Copper |
$6.12 |
▼ -1.43% |
Crypto
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ASX Market Movers · Previous Session
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▲ Top Gainers
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STO
Santos
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$7.50 |
▲ +5.78% |
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SGP
Stockland
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$4.09 |
▲ +5.14% |
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WDS
Woodside
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$28.87 |
▲ +3.22% |
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GPT
GPT Group
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$4.90 |
▲ +2.73% |
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WHC
Whitehaven Coal
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$7.26 |
▲ +2.11% |
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JBH
JB Hi-Fi
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$78.59 |
▲ +1.91% |
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ORG
Origin Energy
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$10.33 |
▲ +1.77% |
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QBE
QBE
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$25.40 |
▲ +1.64% |
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▼ Top Losers
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WTC
WiseTech
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$34.65 |
▼ -7.28% |
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IGO
IGO
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$6.95 |
▼ -3.61% |
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MIN
Mineral Resources
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$58.87 |
▼ -3.41% |
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PLS
Pilbara Minerals
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$4.70 |
▼ -3.29% |
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TLS
Telstra
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$4.92 |
▼ -2.96% |
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RIO
Rio Tinto
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$163.85 |
▼ -2.55% |
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BHP
BHP
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$57.51 |
▼ -2.31% |
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COH
Cochlear
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$124.82 |
▼ -1.76% |
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What Moves Markets
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US strikes on Iran; Trump declares ceasefire "over" — Why it matters: Australian energy producers Santos, Woodside, and Origin are directly exposed to oil price upside; LNG contract pricing also benefits — What to watch: WTI holding above $74.59 and any Hormuz shipping disruption that could further restrict supply
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Telstra network outage with confirmed second infrastructure fault — Why it matters: TLS faces regulatory scrutiny, potential remediation costs, and reputational damage that may extend the share price decline beyond one session — What to watch: Management update on full restoration timeline and any ACMA or government regulatory response
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Iron ore export outlook weakening on China demand signals — Why it matters: BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue face margin pressure if China steel demand continues to soften, compounding the copper decline — What to watch: Any revision to Australia's iron ore export volume or price forecasts, and Chinese steel production data
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ASX Focus
Overview
Energy stocks Santos and Woodside are the standout ASX theme Thursday, driven by WTI crude surging 3.22% to $74.59 after US strikes on Iran and Hormuz escalation — while miners BHP, Rio, and IGO remain under pressure from falling copper and softening China iron ore demand.
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Australian Financial Review
Telstra outage exposes second network issue as trains remain down
Telstra's major network outage, initially attributed to a software glitch, revealed a separate secondary infrastructure fault, extending disruption across mobile, internet, and V/Line train services. TLS shares fell 2.96% to $4.92 in Wednesday's session, with regulatory and reputational risk remaining elevated heading into Thursday.
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Australian Financial Review
Santos surges 5.78% as WTI crude jumps on Iran escalation
Santos closed +5.78% at $7.50 and Woodside gained 3.22% to $28.87 as WTI crude surged 3.22% to $74.59 following Trump's declaration that the Iran ceasefire is "over" and subsequent US military strikes. The Strait of Hormuz returning to full-conflict conditions underpins further upside risk for Australian LNG and oil producers.
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SteelOrbis via Google News
Australia expects iron ore exports to peak before easing on weaker China demand
Australia's iron ore export volumes are forecast to peak in the near term before declining as Chinese steel demand weakens, adding structural pressure to the earnings outlook for BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue. The outlook compounds Wednesday's session losses — BHP fell 2.31% to $57.51 and Rio dropped 2.55% to $163.85 — as copper also slid 1.43%.
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Macro & Policy
Overview
The dominant macro development in the last 24 hours is the US resumption of military strikes on Iran, which has pushed WTI crude to $74.59 (+3.22%), lifted the US 10-year yield to 4.57%, and introduced a material geopolitical risk premium across global asset prices.
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The Guardian
US stock markets fall amid Iran strikes and potential higher interest rates
Wall Street retreated as Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over and US forces conducted additional strikes, with the Dow falling 1.09% to 52,348.4 and the S&P 500 down 0.28% to 7,482.7. The dual pressure of rising geopolitical risk and the US 10-year yield climbing to 4.57% weighed on rate-sensitive and industrials-exposed sectors.
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Commodities
Overview
WTI crude surged 3.22% to $74.59 — the dominant commodity move overnight — as US strikes on Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruption risk drove the largest oil rally in two months, with direct positive implications for ASX energy producers Santos and Woodside.
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MarketWatch
Oil prices extend gains after hours as US forces conduct additional strikes on Iran
WTI crude rose 3.22% to $74.59, posting its largest single-session gain in two months, as Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over and US forces launched additional strikes. For Australian investors, Santos (+5.78%) and Woodside (+3.22%) already reflected this move Wednesday; extended after-hours oil gains suggest further support at Thursday's open.
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SteelOrbis
Australia expects iron ore exports to peak before easing on weaker China demand
Australian iron ore export volumes are expected to peak and then decline as Chinese steel demand softens, undermining the volume outlook for the nation's largest export earner. Copper's 1.43% fall to $6.12 reinforces the broader base metals weakness, adding pressure to BHP, Rio Tinto, Mineral Resources, and IGO heading into Thursday's session.
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Global Markets
Overview
US forces conducted additional strikes on Iran overnight after Trump declared the ceasefire "over," sending WTI crude up 3.22% to $74.59, pushing the US 10-year yield to 4.57%, and triggering broad equity risk-off with the Dow falling 1.09% to 52,348.4.
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Australian Financial Review
'Let's just finish the job': US launches new strikes on Iran
The US resumed military strikes on Iran after Trump signalled the ceasefire was over, roiling global markets and driving a sharp repricing in oil, rates, and equities. For Australian investors, the direct read-through is energy-positive and broadly risk-negative — with the Dow dropping 1.09% and US yields rising to 4.57%, tempering any equity upside from the oil move.
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MarketWatch
Investors haven't been this bullish on the dollar in a decade
Speculative positioning on the US dollar has reached its most bullish level in a decade, a dynamic that carries headwinds for AUD/USD, which held near flat at $0.6932 Wednesday but faces structural downward pressure if dollar strength extends. A stronger USD typically weighs on commodity prices and tightens financial conditions for emerging market and resource-linked currencies, including the Australian dollar.
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The Number
$74.59 WTI crude
WTI oil surged 3.22% to $74.59 — its biggest single-session gain in two months — after US strikes on Iran and Hormuz escalation, directly lifting Santos and Woodside while adding a geopolitical risk premium that is suppressing broader ASX sentiment at Thursday's open.
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