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May 29, 2026
The Markets Brief
ASX Pre-Market · 7:30am AEST
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Opening Note
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Market Bias
Mixed — US gains offset by local selling and oil drop
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ASX Read
Cautious open despite Wall St gains; oil, gold stocks diverge
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Main Driver
US inflation data; Iran ceasefire deal weighing on oil
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The ASX faces a cautious open despite the S&P 500 rising 0.58% to 7,563.6 and the Nasdaq adding 0.91% to 26,917.5, after the local bourse shed 1.43% to 8,592.9 in Thursday's session — a divergence explained by falling oil prices and broad-based selling in rate-sensitive and commodity names. WTI crude dropped 3.80% to $88.60 on reports the US and Iran are close to a ceasefire deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while US 10-year yields eased 0.58% to 4.45% after inflation data printed at a three-year high. Gold surged 2.76% to $4,527.10, copper gained 2.58% to $6.42, and the AUD/USD firmed 0.29% to 0.7165. The oil move is the sharpest near-term catalyst: energy names face further pressure while the gold and copper rallies offer selective support for precious metal and diversified miners. Newmont's 7.22% fall on Thursday looks inconsistent with gold's surge and may see a correction at open. Rio Tinto's 2.53% decline is harder to reconcile with copper's strength, and could attract dip buyers. Rate-sensitive technology and software names — Xero off 2.56%, Technology One off 2.79% — remain exposed if the Fed rate-hike scenario narrative gains traction following the elevated US inflation print.
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Market Tape
| S&P 500 +0.58% to 7,563.6; Nasdaq +0.91% to 26,917.5 — tech and growth names supported, positive read for ASX tech sector | | ASX 200 closed -1.43% at 8,592.9 Thursday — broad-based selling in tech, miners, and insurers led the decline | | WTI oil -3.80% to $88.60 on Iran ceasefire progress; gold +2.76% to $4,527.10; copper +2.58% to $6.42 — energy names under pressure, precious and base metals offer offset | | US 10Y yield -0.58% to 4.45% despite elevated inflation print — bond market pricing some disinflation relief, mild positive for rate-sensitive ASX equities |
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The Read
| Thursday's ASX selloff in gold miner Newmont (-7.22%) now sits at odds with gold's 2.76% overnight surge to $4,527.10, creating a potential mean-reversion trade at Friday's open. | | The Iran ceasefire deal narrative is the dominant transmission channel: a reopened Strait of Hormuz would structurally reduce oil prices, pressuring ASX energy stocks while easing global inflation and supporting rate-sensitive sectors. |
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Stocks In Play
| NEM (Newmont) — Thursday's 7.22% fall sits directly at odds with gold's +2.76% overnight surge to $4,527.10; strong rebound candidate at open | | RIO (Rio Tinto) — fell 2.53% Thursday despite copper rising 2.58% to $6.42 overnight; copper strength may drive buying interest at the open | | ALD (Ampol) — WTI crude's 3.80% drop to $88.60 on Iran ceasefire reports is a direct earnings headwind for domestic refiner/retailer; sentiment likely negative |
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Markets at a Glance
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Indices
| ASX 200 |
8,592.9 |
▼ -1.43% |
| S&P 500 |
7,563.6 |
▲ +0.58% |
| Dow Jones |
50,669.0 |
▲ +0.05% |
| Nasdaq |
26,917.5 |
▲ +0.91% |
FX
| AUD/USD |
0.7165 |
▲ +0.29% |
| AUD/GBP |
0.5325 |
▲ +0.21% |
| AUD/EUR |
0.6145 |
▲ +0.05% |
| AUD/JPY |
113.9120 |
▲ +0.00% |
Rates
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Commodities
| Gold |
$4,527.10 |
▲ +2.76% |
| WTI Oil |
$88.60 |
▼ -3.80% |
| Copper |
$6.42 |
▲ +2.58% |
Crypto
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ASX Market Movers · Previous Session
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▲ Top Gainers
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WES
Wesfarmers
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$78.48 |
▲ +1.19% |
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AMC
Amcor
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$54.40 |
▲ +1.04% |
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WOW
Woolworths
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$34.94 |
▲ +0.92% |
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CPU
Computershare
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$34.20 |
▲ +0.83% |
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COL
Coles
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$21.52 |
▲ +0.75% |
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ALD
Ampol
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$33.84 |
▲ +0.48% |
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PLS
Pilbara Minerals
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$6.30 |
▲ +0.32% |
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TCL
Transurban
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$14.54 |
▲ +0.21% |
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▼ Top Losers
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NEM
Newmont
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$145.77 |
▼ -7.22% |
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SEK
Seek
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$11.82 |
▼ -3.90% |
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TNE
Technology One
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$29.25 |
▼ -2.79% |
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QBE
QBE
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$22.45 |
▼ -2.77% |
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TWE
Treasury Wine
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$4.26 |
▼ -2.74% |
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XRO
Xero
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$74.49 |
▼ -2.56% |
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RIO
Rio Tinto
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$183.46 |
▼ -2.53% |
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LYC
Lynas Rare Earths
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$18.95 |
▼ -2.52% |
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What Moves Markets
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US inflation rises at fastest pace in three years — Why it matters: ASX rate-sensitive sectors — technology (XRO, TNE), REITs, and banks — face ongoing valuation pressure if the Fed signals rate hikes; both Xero (-2.56%) and Technology One (-2.79%) sold off Thursday ahead of this data — What to watch: Fed commentary on rate-hike scenarios following the inflation print; any shift in US 10-year yield above 4.50%
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US-Iran ceasefire deal reported, Hormuz reopening in prospect — Why it matters: directly impacts ASX energy stocks and global oil-linked inflation expectations; WTI already down 3.80% to $88.60 — What to watch: formal confirmation of a deal and whether OPEC+ responds with output adjustments; Brent crude price direction at ASX open
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Gold surges 2.76% to $4,527.10 overnight — Why it matters: Newmont (NEM) fell 7.22% Thursday with no direct company news, making the stock acutely sensitive to gold's overnight move; copper's 2.58% gain also raises questions over Rio Tinto's 2.53% Thursday decline — What to watch: NEM open price and whether the gold move translates into buying across the ASX gold sub-index
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ASX Focus
Overview
Newmont's 7.22% Thursday sell-off — the ASX's sharpest single-stock move — now faces a direct challenge from gold's overnight surge to $4,527.10, making NEM the most closely watched name at Friday's open amid a market searching for direction after the benchmark shed 1.43%.
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Australian Financial Review
ASX to open higher; US inflation rises at fastest pace in three years
The ASX is signalled to open higher despite US inflation recording its fastest pace of increase in three years, creating tension between positive Wall Street leads and the rate-hike risk the data introduces. The data complicates the near-term outlook for rate-sensitive ASX sectors including technology and property.
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ASX Market Data
Newmont (NEM) — largest ASX loser, -7.22% Thursday
Newmont fell 7.22% to $145.77 on Thursday, the steepest decline among ASX 200 constituents, with no direct company news identified as a catalyst. The move is inconsistent with gold's 2.76% overnight rally to $4,527.10, suggesting Thursday's selling may have been technically or fund-flow driven rather than fundamental.
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Australian Financial Review
Iran and US reportedly reach new ceasefire deal
The US and Iran are reported to have reached the outline of a ceasefire deal, with Treasury Secretary Bessent noting the "makings of a deal" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A reopening would directly reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices, pressuring ASX-listed energy producers and refiners including Ampol.
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Macro & Policy
Overview
US inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years, intensifying debate among Federal Reserve policymakers over potential rate hike scenarios, while Australian Treasury's secretary stated there is "no clear evidence" supporting criticisms of proposed capital gains tax reforms currently under Senate estimates scrutiny.
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Reuters via Google News
Fed policymakers eye rate hike scenarios as AI debate deepens
Federal Reserve policymakers are actively modelling rate hike scenarios following US inflation data rising at its fastest pace in three years, with the AI investment boom complicating the traditional inflation-demand framework. For Australian investors, a more hawkish Fed trajectory would sustain pressure on ASX growth and technology stocks already under selling pressure this week.
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The Guardian
Treasury secretary says 'no clear evidence' for CGT reform criticisms
Australia's Treasury secretary told Senate estimates there is "no clear evidence" supporting the principal criticisms of the government's proposed capital gains tax reforms, keeping the policy debate live heading into the next parliamentary session. Property-linked ASX stocks and real estate investment trusts remain exposed to sentiment shifts if the CGT reform timeline accelerates.
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Commodities
Overview
Gold surged 2.76% to $4,527.10 overnight — the most significant commodity move in Thursday's session — creating a sharp disconnect with Newmont's 7.22% ASX decline, while WTI crude's 3.80% fall to $88.60 on Iran ceasefire progress is the dominant near-term risk for energy sector earnings.
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The Economic Times via Google News
Why are gold and silver prices up today, and will precious metals continue to rise or fall again?
Gold rebounded 2.76% to $4,527.10 as safe-haven and inflation-hedge demand returned amid elevated US inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, while silver analysts warned of further downside risk to that metal. The gold move is directly positive for ASX-listed gold producers, most notably Newmont which fell sharply Thursday in what now looks like a mispricing relative to the spot price.
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Global Markets
Overview
Wall Street closed higher — S&P 500 +0.58% to 7,563.6, Nasdaq +0.91% to 26,917.5 — as Dell surged on an AI-driven earnings beat and Okta rose on strong results, offsetting concerns about the fastest US inflation rise in three years and an emerging Iran ceasefire deal that sent oil sharply lower.
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MarketWatch
Dell stock soars toward another record high as the AI boom drives a big earnings beat
Dell surged toward a record high after reporting an AI-driven earnings beat, reinforcing the technology sector's dominant role in US equity gains and lifting the Nasdaq 0.91% to 26,917.5. For Australian investors, the AI infrastructure theme provides a positive read-through to ASX-listed technology and data centre-adjacent names, though Thursday's local tech selling in Xero and Technology One suggests the local market remains cautious on valuations.
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MarketWatch
An Iran deal could actually trigger a painful stock-market selloff, despite Wall Street's optimism
MarketWatch analysis argues that a formal Iran ceasefire deal — while reducing geopolitical risk — could trigger a pullback in equities by removing the fear premium that has supported safe-haven and energy stocks, with WTI already falling 3.80% to $88.60 in anticipation. Australian investors with energy sector exposure face the most direct near-term impact, while a sustained oil decline would also ease domestic inflation pressures and support the RBA's easing calculus.
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The Number
$4,527.10/oz
Gold hit $4,527.10 overnight — up 2.76% — making Newmont's 7.22% ASX sell-off on Thursday one of the most glaring mispricings on the local bourse heading into Friday's open.
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