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May 20, 2026
The Markets Brief
ASX Pre-Market · 7:30am AEST
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Opening Note
Wall Street fell overnight, with the S&P 500 down 0.67% to 7,353.6, the Nasdaq off 0.84% to 25,870.7, and the Dow down 0.65% to 49,363.9, as the US 10-year yield climbed 0.95% to 4.67% — a move that pressures rate-sensitive ASX sectors including REITs, utilities, and growth stocks. The ASX 200 closed yesterday at 8,604.7 (+1.17%), but the overnight US selloff and rising yields point to a softer open this morning. The RBA remains the dominant domestic theme, with the central bank signalling it sees "space" to avoid a fourth consecutive rate hike at its June meeting, while separately warning that a mounting oil shock risks tipping Australia into a 1990s-style recession. WTI crude rose 1.13% overnight to $104.03/bbl, keeping that risk squarely on the table. The AUD fell 0.90% to 0.7111 against the USD, adding pressure on import costs but providing a partial buffer for Australian commodity exporters. Iron ore futures have slipped below CNY 800 amid China's economic slowdown and rising supply, weighing on FMG, RIO, and BHP at open; gold fell 1.40% to $4,485.40, which will pressure Lynas and gold miners, while the rising oil price is a double-edged catalyst for energy stocks including Woodside and Santos.
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Markets at a Glance
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Indices
| ASX 200 |
8,604.7 |
▲ +1.17% |
| S&P 500 |
7,353.6 |
▼ -0.67% |
| Dow Jones |
49,363.9 |
▼ -0.65% |
| Nasdaq |
25,870.7 |
▼ -0.84% |
FX
| AUD/USD |
0.7111 |
▼ -0.90% |
| AUD/GBP |
0.5301 |
▼ -0.62% |
| AUD/EUR |
0.6123 |
▼ -0.46% |
| AUD/JPY |
113.0050 |
▼ -0.80% |
Rates
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Commodities
| Gold |
$4,485.40 |
▼ -1.40% |
| WTI Oil |
$104.03 |
▲ +1.13% |
| Copper |
$6.19 |
▼ -0.91% |
Crypto
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ASX Market Movers · Previous Session
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▲ Top Gainers
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WOW
Woolworths
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$34.21 |
▲ +3.73% |
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CAR
CAR Group
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$26.70 |
▲ +3.69% |
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SEK
Seek
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$13.97 |
▲ +3.40% |
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TWE
Treasury Wine
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$4.34 |
▲ +3.33% |
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CPU
Computershare
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$33.12 |
▲ +3.21% |
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SGP
Stockland
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$3.95 |
▲ +3.13% |
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QBE
QBE
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$23.93 |
▲ +2.88% |
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RHC
Ramsay Health
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$38.15 |
▲ +2.80% |
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▼ Top Losers
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LYC
Lynas Rare Earths
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$18.12 |
▼ -4.28% |
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TNE
Technology One
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$27.80 |
▼ -2.93% |
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PLS
Pilbara Minerals
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$5.92 |
▼ -1.33% |
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IGO
IGO
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$8.25 |
▼ -1.32% |
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JBH
JB Hi-Fi
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$69.84 |
▼ -1.10% |
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FMG
Fortescue
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$21.88 |
▼ -0.32% |
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WTC
WiseTech
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$38.12 |
▼ -0.21% |
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RIO
Rio Tinto
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$178.66 |
▼ -0.20% |
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ASX Focus
Overview
Rising US 10-year yields (4.67%) and a softer Wall Street session drag on ASX rate-sensitive sectors at open, while iron ore futures below CNY 800 and gold's 1.40% drop overnight add pressure to miners including FMG, RIO, and Lynas.
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Australian Financial Review
AUD Slides in May After April Highs
The AUD/USD fell 0.90% to 0.7111 on Monday, extending a May reversal after the currency rallied sharply in April. Rising US yields and a stronger USD are the primary drivers, increasing cost pressures for Australian importers and consumer-facing stocks.
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Australian Financial Review
Woolworths Leads ASX Gainers Amid Supermarket Pricing Debate
Woolworths (WOW) rose 3.73% to $34.21 in Tuesday's session, topping the ASX 200 gainers board. The move came as debate over supermarket price gouging continued, with commentary questioning the regulatory framing around Woolworths and Coles pricing practices.
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ASX Market Data
Lynas Rare Earths Leads ASX Declines
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) fell 4.28% to $18.12 on Tuesday, the steepest decline on the ASX 200. Gold fell 1.40% to $4,485.40 overnight and broader risk-off sentiment across materials names weighed on LYC alongside sector peers IGO (-1.32%) and PLS (-1.33%).
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Macro & Policy
Overview
The RBA has signalled it sees room to pause rate hikes at its June meeting, even as rising oil prices — WTI now at $104.03/bbl — prompt the central bank to warn of recession risks comparable to the 1990s downturn.
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News.com.au via Google News
RBA Sees 'Space' to Skip Fourth Consecutive Rate Hike in June
The RBA is signalling a potential pause at its June board meeting, having raised rates three consecutive times. A pause would provide relief to mortgage holders and rate-sensitive ASX sectors including REITs and consumer discretionary stocks.
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ABC News via Google News
RBA Warns Oil Shock Could Trigger 1990s-Style Recession
The RBA has warned that a sustained oil price shock risks pushing Australia into a recession on the scale of the early 1990s downturn. WTI crude rose another 1.13% overnight to $104.03/bbl, keeping the inflation and growth risk live for the June meeting and beyond.
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Commodities
Overview
Iron ore futures have slipped below CNY 800 as China's economic slowdown deepens and global supply rises, threatening earnings for ASX major miners FMG, RIO, and BHP.
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IndexBox via Google News
Iron Ore Futures Slip Below CNY 800 on China Slowdown and Rising Supply
Iron ore futures fell through the CNY 800 level as China's economic slowdown constrains steel demand and seaborne supply continues to rise. FMG (-0.32%), RIO (-0.20%), and broader diversified miners face ongoing price headwinds from this demand-supply imbalance.
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Finimize via Google News
Iron Ore Slips as China Tightens Steel Capacity Swaps
China's tightening of steel capacity swap rules is adding a structural headwind to iron ore demand, compounding existing pressure from weak economic activity. ASX-listed iron ore producers face a dual squeeze from lower volumes and softer pricing as Chinese steelmakers reduce output.
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Global Markets
Overview
US equities fell overnight — S&P 500 -0.67% to 7,353.6, Nasdaq -0.84% to 25,870.7 — as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.67%, reflecting renewed concern about US fiscal deficits and the inflation impact of rising oil prices.
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MarketWatch
Trump Says He'll Let Warsh 'Do What He Wants' on Rates
Trump signalled he would allow Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh to set rates independently, a comment markets interpreted as a softening of his prior pressure on the Fed — though uncertainty over US monetary policy direction remains elevated. For Australian investors, sustained high US rates keep the USD strong, maintain AUD/USD pressure at 0.7111, and cap risk appetite across global equities.
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MarketWatch
Home Depot Sales Healthy but Customers Pulling Back in Key Categories
Home Depot reported healthy overall sales but flagged selective consumer pullback in discretionary home improvement categories, keeping its full-year outlook intact. The result is a read-through for ASX consumer discretionary names like JB Hi-Fi (-1.10% Tuesday) and Bunnings parent Wesfarmers, where high interest rates continue to constrain big-ticket spending.
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The Number
$104.03/bbl
WTI crude rose 1.13% to $104.03 overnight — a level the RBA has explicitly flagged as a recession risk for Australia, with direct implications for inflation, rate policy, and ASX energy and consumer stocks.
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