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May 12, 2026
The Markets Brief
ASX Pre-Market · 7:30am AEST
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Opening Note
US equities closed modestly higher overnight — S&P 500 +0.19% to 7,412.8, Dow Jones +0.19% to 49,704.5, Nasdaq +0.10% to 26,274.1 — though the gains are thin and provide limited positive carry into today's ASX open following Monday's 0.49% decline to 8,701.8, which was weighed by a 15.96% fall in CSL and broad selling across the banks, property, and consumer discretionary sectors. The AUD/USD sits unchanged at 0.7250, while the US 10-year yield rose 1.05% to 4.41%, maintaining upward pressure on rate-sensitive ASX names in a budget-day environment. Commodity moves are constructive for resources: copper gained 2.34% overnight to $6.49 and gold rose 1.25% to $4,745.60, though WTI crude fell 1.69% to $98.25. Federal Budget 2026 is the dominant domestic theme today, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivering the budget speech tonight. Pre-announcement positioning will drive sector activity throughout the session — cost-of-living relief measures, housing supply policy, clean energy and infrastructure commitments, and fiscal deficit settings all carry direct implications for ASX healthcare, property, construction, and utilities stocks. CommBank fell 1.08% to $174.01, Stockland fell 1.77% to $3.89, and Seek fell 1.07% to $13.85 on Monday, reflecting pre-budget caution across rate and fiscal policy-sensitive sectors. CSL fell 15.96% to $100.75 in Monday's session — no news catalyst in today's feed; investors should watch for a company announcement at open. Goodman Group led Monday's gainers at +2.05% to $30.88; mining names South32 (+1.45% to $4.20), Fortescue (+0.71% to $21.42), and IGO (+1.08% to $8.43) carry supportive overnight signals from copper's 2.34% gain and firm Chinese iron ore demand; Woodside (+1.53% to $30.51) will track WTI crude, which fell 1.69% to $98.25 overnight.
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Markets at a Glance
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Indices
| ASX 200 |
8,701.8 |
▼ -0.49% |
| S&P 500 |
7,412.8 |
▲ +0.19% |
| Dow Jones |
49,704.5 |
▲ +0.19% |
| Nasdaq |
26,274.1 |
▲ +0.10% |
FX
| AUD/USD |
0.7250 |
▲ +0.01% |
| AUD/GBP |
0.5318 |
▲ +0.13% |
| AUD/EUR |
0.6149 |
▲ +0.03% |
| AUD/JPY |
113.8370 |
▲ +0.26% |
Rates
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Commodities
| Gold |
$4,745.60 |
▲ +1.25% |
| WTI Oil |
$98.25 |
▼ -1.69% |
| Copper |
$6.49 |
▲ +2.34% |
Crypto
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ASX Market Movers · Previous Session
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▲ Top Gainers
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GMG
Goodman Group
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$30.88 |
▲ +2.05% |
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WDS
Woodside
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$30.51 |
▲ +1.53% |
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S32
South32
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$4.20 |
▲ +1.45% |
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LYC
Lynas Rare Earths
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$19.68 |
▲ +1.23% |
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COH
Cochlear
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$101.06 |
▲ +1.17% |
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IGO
IGO
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$8.43 |
▲ +1.08% |
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ORI
Orica
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$21.90 |
▲ +0.78% |
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FMG
Fortescue
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$21.42 |
▲ +0.71% |
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▼ Top Losers
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CSL
CSL
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$100.75 |
▼ -15.96% |
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JBH
JB Hi-Fi
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$71.51 |
▼ -2.43% |
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QAN
Qantas
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$8.74 |
▼ -1.80% |
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SGP
Stockland
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$3.89 |
▼ -1.77% |
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CBA
CommBank
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$174.01 |
▼ -1.08% |
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SEK
Seek
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$13.85 |
▼ -1.07% |
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ALL
Aristocrat
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$46.38 |
▼ -0.96% |
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NEM
Newmont
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$158.85 |
▼ -0.94% |
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ASX Focus
Overview
CSL's 15.96% fall to $100.75 in Monday's session — with no news catalyst identified in today's feed — is the single most significant ASX development heading into today's open, compounded by budget-day uncertainty weighing on banks and property names.
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ASX market data
CSL falls 15.96% with no news catalyst in today's feed
CSL declined 15.96% to close at $100.75 in Monday's session — the largest single-stock fall on the ASX that day. No corresponding news catalyst has been identified in today's feed; investors should watch for a company announcement at open, as a move of this magnitude typically indicates a material event.
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The Guardian
Federal budget 2026 live: Chalmers to deliver budget speech tonight
Treasurer Jim Chalmers will deliver the Federal Budget 2026 tonight, with ASX markets trading on pre-announcement positioning across healthcare, property, construction, and utilities sectors. CommBank (-1.08% to $174.01), Stockland (-1.77% to $3.89), and Seek (-1.07% to $13.85) were among the softer names on Monday as rate-sensitive sectors priced in fiscal uncertainty.
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Finimize (via Google News)
Iron Ore Prices Keep Climbing As China Signals Firmer Steel Demand
Iron ore prices are climbing as China signals firmer steel demand, a direct positive read-through for ASX-listed miners. Monday's session reflected this sentiment, with South32 +1.45% to $4.20, Fortescue +0.71% to $21.42, and IGO +1.08% to $8.43 among the top ASX gainers.
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Macro & Policy
Overview
Federal Budget 2026, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivering tonight's budget speech, is the dominant Australian macro event — fiscal deficit settings, cost-of-living relief, and clean energy commitments will all be scrutinised for their implications on the RBA's rate path and ASX sector positioning.
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The Guardian
Federal budget 2026 live updates: treasurer Jim Chalmers to present budget speech tonight
Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers the Federal Budget 2026 tonight, with markets tracking fiscal deficit projections, cost-of-living relief packages, and infrastructure and clean energy commitments for their ASX sector implications. Rate-sensitive equities and the RBA rate outlook will both be re-priced depending on the scale of fiscal expansion announced.
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The Guardian
UK borrowing costs rise as Starmer speech fails to dispel investor 'jitters'
UK gilt yields moved higher after Prime Minister Starmer's address failed to reassure bond markets, adding to sovereign debt concerns in Europe. The episode is a timely reference point for Australian investors assessing how tonight's domestic budget is received by bond markets — any signs of fiscal slippage could widen Australian government bond spreads.
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Commodities
Overview
Iron ore prices are climbing on firmer Chinese steel demand signals, a positive lead for ASX-listed miners including Fortescue, South32, and BHP heading into today's open.
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Finimize (via Google News)
Iron Ore Prices Keep Climbing As China Signals Firmer Steel Demand
Iron ore prices continued to rise as China's steel sector signals firmer demand, supporting the Australian bulk commodity export outlook. The move is directly relevant to Fortescue (+0.71%), South32 (+1.45%), and the broader ASX materials sector, which also benefited from copper's 2.34% overnight gain to $6.49.
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Discovery Alert (via Google News)
Why Gold and Silver Are Rising as the Fed Cuts Rates
Gold rose 1.25% overnight to $4,745.60, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand. For ASX-listed gold producers and Newmont (-0.94% on Monday to $158.85), the gold price trajectory is the primary driver of earnings and near-term sector valuation.
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Global Markets
Overview
US equities posted modest overnight gains — S&P 500 +0.19% to 7,412.8, Dow Jones +0.19% to 49,704.5, Nasdaq +0.10% to 26,274.1 — providing a muted but positive overnight lead for the ASX open.
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MarketWatch
As Trump heads to China, here's how much the dollar is overvalued, according to Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs has assessed the US dollar as overvalued as Trump heads to China for trade discussions, a development with direct implications for the AUD/USD rate and the competitiveness of Australian resource exports. The AUD/USD held at 0.7250 overnight; any further US dollar decline on trade progress could provide a tailwind for Australian commodity exporters.
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MarketWatch
Iren's stock pulls back as investors assess the steep price of the AI buildout
Iren's pullback reflects growing investor scrutiny of capital intensity in the global AI infrastructure buildout — a theme directly relevant to Goodman Group, which rose 2.05% to $30.88 on Monday on its data centre and logistics real estate exposure. How global investors price the AI capex cycle will increasingly influence Goodman Group's premium valuation on the ASX.
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The Number
-15.96%
CSL's Monday session decline — the largest single-stock fall on the ASX that day — with no news catalyst identified in today's feed; investors should watch for a company announcement at open.
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